Lions playoff picture: Detroit’s updated chances to win NFC top seed in 2023 NFL playoffs

In their Week 16 victory over the Vikings, the Lions did something they had never done before. They have officially won the NFC North.

Detroit won their division for the final time in 1993, when it was a member of the now-defunct NFC Central. The Lions’ division championship is their third overall, and it puts them on track to be a postseason contender in an open NFC.

With two weeks left in the season, the Lions still have a lot to sort out. They are in contention for the conference’s top seed, as they are currently tied for the conference lead with the 49ers and Eagles.

Here’s what you need to know about the Lions’ playoff chances and chances of being the NFC’s No. 1 seed as the 2023 NFL season comes to a close.

As previously stated, the Lions have already clinched the NFC North, ensuring that they will host at least one home playoff game in 2023. They have also clinched a top-three spot in the conference by finishing with a superior overall record than the NFC South winner.

Jared Goff

But what kind of seed will the Lions have? That is still up in the air, given that they have the same record as the 49ers and Eagles at 11-4, while the Cowboys trail by only one game at 10-5.

In terms of the competition for the No. 1 seed, NFL.com estimates the Lions to have an 8% chance of achieving that honor. That ranks third in the conference, trailing only the 49ers.

While the Lions don’t have complete control over their destiny, they can at least have a shot at the No. 1 seed by winning out. They would then need the 49ers to lose to force a tiebreaker with the Eagles.

The “strength of victory” tiebreaker currently favors Philadelphia over Detroit. That might change if the Lions beat the 10-win Cowboys and the 7-win Vikings, while the Eagles face the Cardinals and Giants in the final two weeks of the season. Those teams have only eight wins between them, which might allow the Lions to pass them.

Still, defeating the Cowboys, who are expected to defeat the Lions at home, will be a difficult challenge. And if the Lions lose that game, Detroit will be substantially favored, if not assured, of the No. 3 seed. Why? Because they would no longer have a path to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker, they would have to finish ahead of the competition.

That would require the Eagles to lose both of their final two games of the season.

All that’s to say the Lions look likely to be the No. 3 seed in the NFC if they lose to the Cowboys. That’s why they’re ranked third in the No. 1 seed probability.

However, if the Lions can upset Dallas and put some pressure on the 49ers and Eagles heading into Week 18, they will remain in position to potentially claim the No. 1 seed. They simply need some assistance from San Francisco and possibly Philadelphia to ensure that things go their way.

The Lions have one of the most challenging schedules left in the NFL, with a.567 strength of schedule that ranks tenth in the league.

This will make Detroit’s pursuit of the NFC’s top seed even more difficult. Add in the fact that the Lions’ game versus Dallas is on the road, and it could be one of the most difficult games of the season.

It’ll be intriguing to see how the Lions approach their Week 18 matchup against the Vikings. It will be straightforward if they beat the Cowboys; they will play their starters and go for the No. 1 seed.

But what happens if the Lions lose? Dan Campbell and company should consider resting their starters as they prepare for a possible wild-card weekend matchup.