United States leads medal predictions for Paris 2024

With about six months until the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, Nielsen Gracenote predicts that the United States will continue to lead in both gold medals (which determine medal table place save in the case of ties) and overall medals.

Nielsen Gracenote Sports, a company that provides statistical analysis to sports leagues around the world, made the forecast. It also monitors important Olympic competitions in the months preceding the Games.

The prediction may not be completely accurate or precise due to the suspension of Russian and Belarusian athletes from competing under their national flags, though they will be able to participate as neutrals, despite widespread dissatisfaction with their limited participation in Paris and lack of recent competition.
“Almost all Russian and Belarusian competitors have been absent from international competition since February 2022,” stated Simon Gleave, Gracenote’s head of analysis, to the Associated Press. “Anyone competing in Paris 2024 will make predictions difficult,” he went on to say.

Gracenote predicts that the United States will win 129 medals, 37 of them gold. According to the survey, China is in second place with 35 gold medals, but well behind in overall tally with 85, making it the top Asian nation. Great Britain, with 17 gold medals, would lead Europe with 64 medals and round out the top three in Paris 2024.

The host team would place fourth based on their expected gold medal total (26), but fifth based on their predicted overall medal total. The swap would be with Japan (17 golds and 56 total).

According to the firm, the top ten would include Australia (15 golds from 48), which also leads their continent, Italy (13-47), Germany (10-39), the Netherlands (16-35), and South Korea (7-23).

Outside of the top 10, Brazil is the best Latin American team with 19 medals (9+3+7), while Ethiopia leads Africa with 12 (3+5+4), followed by Kenya with 11 (3+4+4).

It is worth mentioning that at the most recent Summer Olympics, Tokyo 2020 (held in 2021 owing to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic), Gracenote correctly predicted the top 10 countries by total medals, although not in the exact order.
It did the same for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, naming the top five countries but failing to disclose an exact order. In reality, it properly predicted 8 of the top 10 teams, which was a commendable accomplishment, especially given that it also correctly predicted Norway would set a new record for the most medals won at a Winter Olympics.