Green Bay, Wisconsin – While all signs lead to the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Jones reuniting for an eighth season, his sidekick of the last four years, AJ Dillon, has an uncertain future. In the first installment of a series on Green Bay’s 12 unrestricted free agents, here is the forecast for Dillon. Here’s why the Packers should keep AJ Dillon.

No, Dillon was unable to cover Jones’ extended absences. And no, Dillon was not Derrick Henry 2.0. But he was a valuable role player during the last three seasons. Three factors work in Dillon’s favour. One, he’s tougher than a two-dollar steak. While he missed time with COVID as a rookie in 2020, he appeared in all 17 games in 2021, 2022, and the first 13 games in 2023. Overall, he appeared in 51 consecutive regular-season games before missing one due to a fractured thumb. He missed Week 18 and the two playoff games due to a stinger.

Two, he is successful. Don’t mind the pun. Pro Football Reference provides a statistic called “Success Rate.” It corresponds to Green Bay’s win/loss grading system. A successful run is one that achieves 40% of the yards on first down (a 4-yard run on first-and-10), more than half the remaining yards on second down, and all of the remaining yards on third or fourth down. From 2021 to 2023, 50 running backs logged at least 275 carries. Dillon’s 55.9 percent success rate was the highest in the NFL. Despite a dismal 2023, his 50.0 percent success rate ranked 10th among 41 running backs with at least 110 carries.

Three, he’s a versatile back. Dillon can not only get the tough yards, but he can also catch (34 of 37 targets in 2021 and 22 of 28 in 2023) and protect. Keeping Dillon would provide the Packers with a trustworthy complementary back while also allowing them to spend their premium draft picks at other areas. At the end of the season, coach Matt LaFleur stated, “AJ has been an excellent member of our team. This league requires numerous backs. You have to. It’s just the battering these men get. Every year, around the end of the season, I believe you could see his value. Shoot, I would love to have him back here.”

Coach Matt LaFleur was the Titans’ offensive coordinator in 2018. This was Henry’s first 1,000-yard season. It was not difficult to draw parallels between Henry (6-foot-3, 247 pounds; 4.54 in the 40; 8.78 Relative Athletic Score) and Dillon (6-foot, 247; 4.53 in the 40; 9.18 RAS).