Jason Mackey: Prioritizing the future with Paul Skenes is fine, but Pirates should ensure it actually arrives with him in Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH – As dominant as Paul Skenes was in Milwaukee, matching his career high with 11 strikeouts and riding a wave of momentum into what will be a start at the MLB All-Star Game next week, it’s doubtful anyone will forget Pirates manager Derek Shelton’s decision in the eighth inning on Thursday. No-hitter going, Skenes at 99 pitches, his efficiency increasing … and Shelton made what was certainly an unpopular choice by pulling Skenes. It nearly became catastrophic when Colin Holderman allowed two singles and a walk in the eighth before escaping. Can’t say I love it, but I also don’t have a huge problem with what Shelton did. The odds of completing two more
innings in fewer than 20 or so pitches were slim. So Shelton, explaining the Pirates weighed input from Skenes’ stuff and body language, chose to prioritize the future.
Nobody could fault Skenes for thinking that way. It’s a business. And he’s right: Starting pitchers of Skenes’ potential caliber command upwards of $35 million per season now. Imagine what it will be like in five or six years. But if you’re the Pirates, isn’t this your only chance of having a bona fide ace beyond his team-controlled years? The Pirates offering a bunch of guaranteed money now to Skenes carries obvious team risk, as well, though it’s probably more injury-related than whether what we’re seeing is real.
The benefit for Skenes could be security at a ridiculously early stage of his career.
At the same time … say Skenes would make $10 million in his first year of arbitration. Increase that $5 million per year over the next three. Using very rough and round numbers, that’s $70 million and could be a huge bargain compared to the market for elite starting pitching. Even buying out two free agent years at $35 million per takes you to $140 million (plus this season and next at around the MLB minimum), which is another reason why it’s tough to see anything getting done. Skenes doesn’t have a huge incentive to give up those two seasons when a team with a better track
record of winning and spending might throw an absurd amount of money at the talented pitcher, meaning the Pirates would have to pay Skenes to change his mind.
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