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Francisco Alvarez’s homer in 9th inning gives Mets 4-3 win over Orioles

NEW YORK — Francisco Alvarez hit a solo home run with one out in the ninth inning to give the New York Mets a 4-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night.

J.D. Martinez launched an early two-run shot and Tyrone Taylor had an RBI single as the Mets moved within 1 1/2 games of idle Atlanta for last the National League wild card.

Ramón Urías hit a tying homer in the seventh for the Orioles, who dropped a half-game behind the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East.

The slumping Alvarez, who began the night batting .167 since the All-Star break, drove a 3-0 fastball from Seranthony Domínguez (3-3) to left-center for his first career game-ending RBI.

It was the first homer in 16 games since July 26 for the 22-year-old catcher, who admired his 421-foot drive, then shouted and gestured emphatically toward the New York dugout.

After circling the bases, Alvarez tossed his batting helmet high in the air as he approached his excited teammates waiting to swarm him at home plate.Edwin Díaz (4-1) pitched a perfect inning for the win.

Washington Nationals left-hander DJ Herz has one of the highest 4-seam fastball rates (55.2 percent) in MLB this season. The 23-year-old averages only 94 mph on his heater, which is why he’s given up 10 home runs in 12 starts and ranks in the 13th percentile in barrel rate (10.0 percent).

Rodgers will be salivating looking ahead to this matchup, as the Colorado Rockies second baseman is batting .374 and slugging .571 with a 50.7 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seam fastballs this year. He’s also batting .500 with a 1.141 OPS against lefties over the last two weeks.

These odds are pretty low for a player who’s batting only .180 over the last 15 days, but this is a perfect setup for Lowe. Although his recent batting average doesn’t reflect it, Lowe is crushing right-handed pitching with a 64.5 percent hard-hit rate in that 15-day span. Now he gets to face Oakland Athletics righty Joey Estes, who gives up a ton of barrels and hard-hit balls due to his 53.5 percent 4-seam fastball rate. Well, Lowe has a .561 xSLG and a 56.1 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this year